A proprietary Industrial-Distribution Demand Index built from per-branch in-stock rate, replenishment lead-time and branch counts across the fastener, metalworking and MRO distributors. Fastener and metalworking demand is a classic leading indicator of industrial production — we turn it into an aggregated, point-in-time, ticker-mapped signal.
Distributors ration inventory to demand. When the industrial cycle heats up, per-branch in-stock rates fall and lead-times stretch; as it cools, availability recovers and branch openings slow. We observe those three primitives continuously, per branch, and composite them into a single demand index that historically turns ahead of industrial-production prints.
Each component ships as its own aggregated series and as a weighted contribution to the headline index — with sector sub-indices tilted to the names each best informs.
Share of tracked SKUs available at each branch. Tightening availability across the network signals demand outrunning supply — the classic early sign of an industrial upcycle before it hits distributor revenue.
Quoted ship / availability windows per branch and category. Stretching lead-times confirm supply strain and pricing power; compression flags a demand rollover — the second leg of the composite.
Active-branch census with openings, closings and vending / on-site signals. Network expansion is a management bet on demand; contraction and consolidation read through to LKQ and the broader distribution complex.
The electrical-distribution channel (CED and peers) as a sector and data-center read-through — availability and lead-time on switchgear, wire and gear that gate build-out, informing the electrical-products names.
Each distributor and sub-sector is normalized to one schema and mapped to the equity whose cycle it leads, with CED carried as an electrical / data-center read-through rather than a listed name.
Engineered to pass a fund's data-diligence: point-in-time integrity, transparent aggregation and index construction, and a compliance posture that keeps it usable across the desk.
Each per-branch in-stock reading, lead-time and branch-census entry is archived with its capture timestamp. The composite reconstructs exactly as it stood historically — no restatements, no look-ahead.
We deliver the composite, its z-scored components and sector sub-indices — mapped to tickers. The product is a leading-indicator direction, not a claim on any distributor's absolute sales.
Built only from publicly observable branch and catalog surfaces. No personal data, no customer records, nothing material and non-public. GDPR-aligned and DDQ-ready.
An illustrative slice: the headline Industrial-Distribution Demand Index and its two primary drivers — per-branch in-stock and lead-time — showing the tightening that leads a distributor revenue re-acceleration.
| Month | In-stock | Lead-time (d) | Composite | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 95.8% | 3.1 | 99.4 | -0.3% |
| 2026-04 | 95.2% | 3.3 | 100.1 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05 | 94.7% | 3.5 | 101.0 | +0.9% |
| 2026-06 | 94.3% | 3.6 | 101.8 | +0.8% |
| 2026-07 | 94.1% | 3.8 | 102.6 | +0.8% |
| 2026-08* | 93.9% | 3.9 | 103.1 | +0.5% |
Request a point-in-time sample — the composite index with its components and ticker mapping. We'll send the index-construction note and a backtest walkthrough.
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